Turkish Government's behavior toward world regions are mostly positively correlated with each other. From this table though, one cannot really discern each correlation's effect on other correlations.
For example, as seen in the table, Turkish government's behavior to NMR and NMR's behavior towards Turkish government are highly correlated. This is true for each and every regional dyad.
From the table, we can see that both NMR-> TURGOV is also positively correlated with EUR -> TURGOV and TURGOV-> EUR, whereas and TURGOV->NMR is positively correlated with EUR -> TURGOV.
cor(Turgov.ALL$Nmr.Turgov,Turgov.ALL$Eur.Turgov)
0.2476674
cor(Turgov.ALL$Turgov.Nmr, Turgov.ALL$Eur.Turgov)
0.1351769
cor(Turgov.ALL$Turgov.Nmr, Turgov.ALL$Turgov.Eur)
0.04488695
cor(Turgov.ALL$Nmr.Turgov,Turgov.ALL$Turgov.Eur)
0.1432819
To understand whether NMR-> TURGOV is really correlated with EUR -> TURGOV, we should eliminate the effects of correlations with TURGOV-> EUR and TURGOV-> NMR on them.
Therefore, we execute a partial correlation analysis,
partial correlation between "NMR-> TURGOV" and "EUR -> TURGOV" given "TURGOV-> NMR" and "TURGOV->EUR "
pcor.test(Turgov.ALL$Nmr.Turgov,Turgov.ALL$Eur.Turgov,Turgov.ALL[,c("Turgov.Nmr","Turgov.Eur")])
estimate p.value statistic n gp Method
0.1532195 0.01310859 2.480805 260 2 pearson
When we control the effect of other correlations (Turgov>Nmr, Turgov->Eur) the strength of correlation between NMR-> TURGOV and EUR -> TURGOV increases.
Middle East's behavior to Turkey is similarly to Africa and Asia's behavior to Turkey. this may be due to some countries' religious affinity in these regions.
Turkey's behavior to Middle East is positively correlated with its behavior towards Asia and Africa and Europe. A balancing behaviour towards these regions may exist.
Turkey's behavior to Middle East is also negatively correlated with Africa's and Asia's behaviour towards Turkey. This may mean, they do not align with Turkey's Middle East policy in general.
Turkey's behavior to Middle East is positively correlated with Europe's behavior towards Turkey. this may mean, European countries are generally more appreciative of Turkey's behavior towards to Middle East.
Turkey's behavior to North America is positively correlated with Turkey's behavior towards Asia. a balancing behavior towards these regions may exist. It is also negatively correlated with Asia'a behavior towards Turkey. which may imply, Turkey's attempts at balancing may not be well-received by the Asian countries.
Asia's and Afrca bahvior towards Turkey are negatively correlated. There may be competition between these regions over Turkey.
Following is a matrix of partial correlation coefficients, striped of effects of variance in other correlations.
In order to understand the sequence (which one comes first, hence, instigates the other, we use cross-correlation.
Turgov.Nmr -> Turgov.Asa (+)
Turgov.Afr -> Turgov.Asa (+)
